Start of the Week

Context: Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole forum this week. The subject of the speech will be "Financial Stability," and it will happen on August 25 at 10 ET. The talk comes a couple of weeks ahead of the FOMC's next policy meeting, at which most are currently expecting another rate hike and the start of the wind-down of the central bank's balance sheet.

/ES Value: YVAH 2431 YPOC 2425 YVAL 2423

/ES Plan: Friday closed bearish (PBT 2410). Overnight range (2431.50-2419.75) is bearish (GBT 2415). We're moving within Friday's value, struggling at CHVN 2428 zone. We've visited the lower edge 2419, so that gives us a reason for a long bias. However, selling pressure remains so we've 2 options:

A) If market moves below YVAH 2431 and remains below that level on subsequent tests, it is a clearly bearish signal, so try to be a seller leaning on LVNs 2431-2425 towards ONL 2419 GBT 2415 PBT 2410 and finally CLVN 2405. Internals should be neutral or negative. Failure to take out ONH 2431.50 early is a signal of weakness.

B) If the market begins to trade above YVAH 2431 and volume increases at highs, then try to be a buyer towards CLVN 2440. Internals should be neutral or positive. Failure to take out ONL 2419 early is signal of rejection and potential for a move up to CLVNs 2440-2453.

Tips: We still have chance to see a good run if we can push down again, stronger sellers can come into the market at any time, but just keep in mind the 'Full Wagon Theory' so you don't be surprised of a rally.

Today's Economic Calendar

08:30 AM Chicago Fed National Activity Index
11:30 AM 3-Month Bill auction
11:30 AM 6-Month Bill Auction

Disclaimer: All information on this outlook is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice.