ECB Minutes

Context: "Concerns were expressed about the risk of the exchange-rate overshooting in the future," according to the just-released minutes of the ECB's July 19-20 meeting. Euro has slipped further vs the dollar. Minutes of the Fed's July meeting yesterday showed policymakers divided over the timeline for future rate hikes, as some appeared wary about weak inflation, while others were eager to get on with normalization.

/ES Value: YVAH 2471 YPOC 2467 YVAL 2466

/ES Plan: Yesterday closed balanced (GAP 2467.75). Overnight range (2468.50-2458.50) is balanced. We're moving below yesterday's value, breaking down CLVN 2461 zone, so we've 2 options:

A) If market moves below YVAL 2466 and remains below that level on subsequent tests, it is a clearly bearish signal, so try to be a seller leaning on LVNs (2466.75-2462.75) towards CLVN 2453. Internals should be neutral or negative. Failure to take out ONL early is signal of rejection.

B) If the market begins to trade above YVAL 2466 and volume increases at highs, then try to be a buyer towards ONH 2468.50 Internals should be neutral or positive. If market push above 2468.50, keep buying towards YVAH 2471.

Tips: Overnight inventory is balanced. As of now we are trading down right at yesterday’s RTH low (2462.50) This will be key to hold and not retrace too far into. As bears want to keep the 'sell off'. Buyers need to find acceptance above yesterday’s RTH low.

Today's Economic Calendar

09:15 AM Industrial Production
09:45 AM Bloomberg Consumer Index
10:00 AM E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 AM Leading Indicators
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas
01:00 PM FOMC Member Kaplan
01:45 PM FOMC Member Kashkari
04:30 PM Money Supply
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

Disclaimer: All information on this outlook is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice.