Outlook 08/15

Context: Building on yesterday's advance, futures are up 0.3%, as tensions continued to ease between the U.S. and North Korea. Pyongyang toned down its recent sharp rhetoric, saying it would watch what the U.S. does before making a decision on a threatened missile strike near Guam. Oil is down 0.4% at $47.38/bbl, gold is 0.8% lower at $1280/ounce and the 10-year Treasury yield is up 3 bps to 2.25%.

/ES Value: YVAH 2466 YPOC 2464.50 YVAL 2461

/ES Plan: Yesterday closed bullish after crossing CLVN 2453 zone, back to previous value 2470s. Overnight range (2462.50-2473.25) is balanced. We're moving above yesterday's range/value, struggling at CHVN 2470s zone, so we've 2 options:

A) If market moves above YVAL-CLVN 2461 and remains above that level on subsequent tests, it is a clearly bullish signal, so try to be a buyer towards ONH 2473.25, and NK-SoC 2478. Internals should be neutral or positive. Failure to take out ONH early is signal of weakness.

B) If the market begins to trade below YVAL-CLVN 2461 and volume increases at lows, then try to be a seller towards CLVN 2453. Internals should be neutral or negative. If market push below 2453, it's a value transition, so keep selling towards GAP 2440.

Tips: Remember, NorthKorea-Trump tension was a news-driven event so Scene of Crime (SoC) scenario comes into play. 'SoC' zone comes from which a news-based impulsive move was initiated. Just like a criminal returns to the scene of the crime, market often does the same.

Today's Economic Calendar

08:30 AM NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
08:30 AM Retail Sales
08:30 AM Export and Import Prices Index
08:55 AM Redbook index
10:00 AM Business Inventories
10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index
11:30 AM 52-Week Bill auction
11:30 AM 4-Week Bill Auction

Disclaimer: All information on this outlook is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice. Full Disclaimer

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