Trump at UN

Context: Stocks markets are holding at record highs, but appear to be on watch, with little movement ahead of President Trump's debut appearance at the UN General Assembly. He's likely to lay out a foreign policy anchored by "America First" principles, as well as commenting on North Korea, Iran and the fair sharing of the UN's budget. Trump will also hold a series of meetings with world leaders on the sidelines of the big event. FOMC two-day meeting is set to kick off, with officials expected to take further steps to normalize policy and unwind the bank's $4.5T balance sheet.

/ES Value: YVAH 2505 YPOC 2504.50 YVAL 2501

/ES Plan: Yesterday SP500 future has printed another new record high at 2506, led by financial stocks ahead of FOMC meeting, while technology stocks lost ground late in the day. Treasuries pulled back, pushing yields higher, as traders expect that FED starts the process of winding down the central bank balance sheet. ETH/RTH left bullish imbalance (2511). Overnight inventory is balanced moving within yesterday's narrow value, so we've 3 options:

A) If the market moves above YVAH 2505 with internals positive, try to be a buyer leaning on 2505 towards PBT 2511. Failure to take out ONH 2505.50 early is signal of weakness and opens the gate for more selling pressure.

B) If market moves below YVAL 2501 with internals negative, try to be a seller leaning on 2500 towards LVNs 2497-2494. Failure to breakdown YVAL 2501 early is signal of a potential move back to value.

C) If market moves within YVAH-YVAL 2505-2501 with internals neutral, you can only be responsive scalper from the edges sweeping the book to the other side of the range. Fade the extremes of a range is valid until the extremes are hit.

Tips: Stat shows that if a market opens within previous value area, and then remains into value increasing volume, there is an 70% chance that the market will rotate all the way to the other side of value.

Today's Economic Calendar

FOMC meeting begins
8:30 AM Housing Starts
8:30 AM Current Account
8:30 AM Import/Export Prices
8:55 AM Redbook Chain Store Sales

Disclaimer: All information on this outlook is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice.

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