FOMC hawkish

Context: The FOMC held the Fed Funds rate steady but still expects to hike one more time between now and year-end. The central bank will also begin to trim back its balance sheet next month with a $10B reduction. Longer term is a somewhat more dovish message, with the "dots" showing a 20 basis point cut in the expected final resting place of the Fed Funds rate.

/ES Value: YVAH 2507 YPOC 2505.50 YVAL 2501

/ES Plan: Yesterday SP500 future has moved above LIS 2503 previous FOMC announcement, and after that release, fell and tested LVN 2494. As usual, when we see a move driven by news-event, market tends to return to the 'scene of the crime' (SoC setup). ETH/RTH left bullish imbalance (PBT 2507). Overnight shows bullish profile, moving within yesterday's narrow value, so we've 2 options:

A) If the market moves above YVAL 2501 with internals positive, try to be a buyer leaning on 2501-2503 towards PBTs 2508-2511. Failure to take out ONH 2506.25 early is signal of weakness and major retracement.

B) If market moves below YVAL 2501 with internals negative, try to be a seller leaning on 2501-2499 towards LVNs 2497-2494. Failure to breakdown YVAL 2501 early is signal of a potential move back to ATH.

Tips: What really drives the market directionally is volume at prices. High volume means acceptance, low volume means rejection. LVNs (Low Volume Nodes) are the logical spots for entries and the HVNs (High Volume Nodes) the logical spots for targets. That's make sense, only a few people would like to buy something at the most accepted prices. We always look for some advantages.

Today's Economic Calendar

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook
09:00 FHFA House Price Index
09:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Leading Indicators
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory

Disclaimer: All information on this outlook is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice.

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