Debt Ceiling

Context: Congressional leaders and Pres. Trump agreed to extend the debt limit and fund the government until at least mid-December. If passed, the proposal would put an end-of-the-year showdown on the table and could complicate Republicans goal of getting tax reform done by year-end.

The ECB will make its latest policy decision today as investors wait to hear the thoughts of Mario Draghi. While he's expected to lay the groundwork regarding the central bank's stimulus program, most traders believe he will hold off until October to make any major announcements.

/ES Value: YVAH 2467 YPOC 2465 YVAL 2462

/ES Plan: Yesterday closed leaving a bullish imbalance (PBT 2471) after testing CLVN 2461. Overnight inventory is balanced moving around YVAH 2467. North Korea nuclear test was a news-driven event so Scene of Crime (SoC 2474) is still into play. We've 2 options:

A) If the market moves above YVAL-CLVN 2462 and remains above on subsequent tests, try to be a buyer leaning on steps 2462.50-2464.50 towards NK SoC 2474. Internals should be neutral or positive.

B) If market moves below YVAL-CLVN 2462 and remains below on subsequent tests, try to be a seller leaning on steps 2462.50-2460 towards CLVNs 2456 and 2453. Internals should be neutral or negative.

Tips: You can read the market auction process using the DOM. Look for large bids and offers that the market is testing and either lean on them (trade in the same direction) or wait for the market to break through them. Pay attention to the ranges trading as the inside bid and offer move up and down the ‘ladder’ and play reversals at range extremes or pullbacks after breakouts. Pay attention to the thickness of the bids vs offers, in general are there more buyers on the bid than sellers or vice versa. Do your best to stay focused for at least 1-2 hours. Once the market starts to grind with little volume trading, close your trading day.

Today's Economic Calendar

08:30 AM ECB Draghi press conference
08:30 AM Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM Productivity and Costs
09:45 AM Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM Quarterly Services Report
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
12:15 PM Fed's Mester
07:00 PM Fed's Bostic
07:00 PM Fed's Dudley
07:00 PM Fed's George

Disclaimer: All information on this outlook is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice.