Dollar falling

Context: Dollar is losing ground against the yen and euro as a combination of factors. These include the impending landfall of Hurricane Irma, tensions over North Korea, the ECB's indication it may taper its QE program, as well as a Fed rate hike that's likely off the table for December. The U.S. dollar index is now at its lowest level since January 2015.

/ES Value: YVAH 2466 YPOC 2463 YVAL 2461

/ES Plan: Yesterday closed leaving a 'D' balance after drawing a tricky bimodal 'B' shape all session. Overnight inventory is bearish (BT 2451) moving below yesterday value, so we've 2 options:

A) If market moves below YVAL-CLVN 2461 and remains below on subsequent tests, try to be a seller leaning on steps ON_VAH-MID 2460.50-2458.50 towards ONL 2455.75 CLVNs 2453 and BT 2451. Internals (AD+VOL) should be neutral or negative.

B) If the market moves above YVAL-CLVN 2461 and remains above on subsequent tests, try to be a buyer leaning on steps 2460.50-2461 towards ONH 2465.75 and YVAH 2466. Internals (AD+VOL) should be neutral or positive.

Tips: Rollover day, so Sep contract (/ESU7) and Dec contract (/ESZ7) show equal volume traded. If you trade price and structure only, you can trade the continuous contract but if you trade price with order flow, you have to trade where the volume it's much easier to read. If you're not sure, simply don't trade rollover days until the volume of the new contract is much higher than the expiring contract.

Today's Economic Calendar

08:45 AM Fed's Harker
10:00 AM Wholesale Trade
01:00 PM Baker-Hughes
03:00 PM Consumer Credit

Disclaimer: All information on this outlook is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice.