Jobs Report

Context: U.S. job growth likely slowed in August after two straight months of robust gains, but the pace of increase should be more than sufficient for the Fed to start shrinking its massive bond portfolio. The non-farm payrolls report this morning will probably show around 180,000 additions to the workforce, with average hourly earnings rising 0.2%, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

/ES Value: YVAH 2471 YPOC 2469 YVAL 2465

/ES Plan: Yesterday closed bullish (PBT 2483), after testing lower edge CLVN 2456. Overnight inventory is slight bearish moving above yesterday value, so we've 2 options:

A) If the market moves above YVAH 2471 and remains above on subsequent tests, try to be a buyer leaning on steps 2473.25 2474.25 towards ONH 2477 and PBT 2483. Internals should be neutral or positive.

B) If market moves below YVAH 2471 and remains below on subsequent tests, try to be a seller leaning on steps 2470 2469 towards YVAL 2465 and CLVN 2456. Internals should be neutral or negative.

Tips: Todays is NFP Payrolls. At the scheduled time of the NFP Payrolls announcement, there is usually an initial big move in one direction (Do not execute any trade at this point yet), then a retracement of this move, and finally what follows is a big move in the same direction as the initial move. The key is in the waiting, to play only the last leg of this zig-zag move. That 3rd leg shows the real intent after the news.

Today's Economic Calendar

08:30 AM Non-farm payrolls
09:45 AM PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM Construction Spending
10:00 AM Consumer Sentiment
01:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count

Disclaimer: All information on this outlook is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice.