Skeptical of this Last Move Higher




On Monday markets rocketed higher, breaking out of their recent trading ranges to close above their 200 day EMAs (green lines). There are a few reasons to view this last move higher with some skepticism:

1) Volume wasn't really confidence inspiring, staying relatively low.

2) There was no Major Accumulation Day around the actual break out.

3) The market is extremely overbought with 88.82% of all stocks already above their 50 day moving averages, suggesting there isn't much room left to fuel this move.

4) The market is extremely overbought as measure by the RSI, suggesting there isn't much room left to fuel this move.

5) Volatility (VIX) has stopped falling, and looks to be 'basing'. This may fore shadow a decline in risky assets in the very near future.

6) The Record High Percent Index (RHNYA) sits in nose bleed territory at 95.65. Moves over 90 tend to be short lived spikes that are resolved when equities drop...

7) Financials have been lagging, not confirming this last break out as mentioned here.

8) Transports (TRAN) have not confirmed the recent price highs. Old school, hardcore Dow Theory insists that the transports must confirm. Non-confirmation is a sign of weakness.

9) Yields have been rising... and rapidly. This is not equity friendly. At all.
Skeptical of this Last Move Higher Skeptical of this Last Move Higher Reviewed by Information on 06.06 Rating: 5

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